Malaysian palm oil market factors to watch Tuesday Feb 19

The following factors are in all likelihood to impact Malaysian palm oil futures and different vegetable oil markets on Tuesday Feb 19.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Malaysian palm oil futures edged greater during Monday trade, charting a 2nd session of gains in three days, bolstered by means of strength in associated fit for human consumption oils and expected weaker output.

* U.S. wheat futures fell to multimonth lows on Friday, no matter vast energy in commodity and equity markets as grain merchants monitored bearish technical alerts as properly as falling fees in the global cash wheat market.

* U.S. oil costs hit a three-month high on Tuesday, buoyed through production cuts led via the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

MARKET NEWS

Australian wheat manufacturing falls to 11-year low as drought bites

U.S. tariffs on EU vehicles ought to imply EU buying much less U.S. soya beans and gas - Juncker

Brazil's JBS faucets Argentine corn over highly-priced home crop

Chinese frozen food firm recollects merchandise suspected of African swine fever contamination

UK's Gove: Govt will use tariffs, quotas to protect farmers after Brexit

DATA/EVENTS

Cargo surveyor AmSpec releases Malaysia's Feb 1-20 palm oil export data on Feb 20.

Cargo surveyor SGS releases Malaysia's Feb 1-20 palm oil export data on Feb 20.

Cargo surveyor ITS releases Malaysia's Feb 1-20 palm oil export records on Feb 20. - Reuters

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Malaysian palm oil off to a suitable begin in 2019

The Malaysian palm oil area is off to a true begin in 2019 as stock degrees fell 6.7% month-on-month to three million metric tonnes (mt) on the lower back of decrease manufacturing and better exports.

"Jan palm oil stock fell for the first time in 8 months, down 6.7% MoM, to 3.03m mt, which is slightly below market expectations," stated the research residence on Tuesday.

"Consequently, stock-to-usage ratio slipped from 15.7% to 12.3% as export demand grew while production declined."

CPO exports jumped to the very best level since August 2016 as it rallied 21.2% month-on-month to 1.67 million mt.

The EU showed the strongest enlarge in demand of greater than 160%, followed by using China (18%) and India (12%), following the downward revision for CPO import duty.

Meanwhile, CPO production fell 3.9% month-on-month to 1.73 million mt, which was its lowest on account that September 2018.

Public Invest cited that the decline in countrywide manufacturing used to be mostly from East Malaysia, down 8.6% month-on-month whilst production in Peninsular Malaysia was once marginally higher.

CPO futures rallied extra than 16% to RM2,270/mt after falling to its lowest in two years as the market saw symptoms of decline in the record excessive inventory level in the course of the low production season.

Public Invest sees every other challenging quarter for most plantation players in the upcoming quarterly results season as average CPO game rate was once weaker in Q4 at RM1,920/mt.

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GOLD TRADING FORECAST TODAY

INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices were driven lower on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar rallied amid Sino-U.S. trade tensions. Comex gold futures for December delivery fell 0.23% to $1,197.10 a troy ounce as of 10:25 AM ET (14:25 GMT). U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to impose tariffs on almost all Chinese imports, or about $467 billion in goods. Meanwhile, China is planning to ask the WTO for permission to impose sanctions on the U.S., according to a WTO meeting agenda.
• Oil prices rose on Tuesday as U.S. sanctions squeezed Iranian crude exports, tightening global supply despite efforts by Washington to get other producers to increase output. Benchmark Brent crude oil (LCOc1) was up 40 cents at $77.77 a barrel by 0950 GMT. U.S. light crude (CLc1) was up 5 cents at $67.59. "The path of least resistance for oil prices, given the supply fundamentals, remains up," Harry Tchilinguirian, oil strategist at BNP Paribas (PA:BNPP), told Reuters Global Oil Forum.
• "Push the steel mills out of the city center and turn it into a modern, habitable place to live in," reads a banner hung across the boarded-up offices of Guofeng Iron and Steel Co in the center of Tangshan, China's top steelmaking city. Behind the gates of the factory, surrounded by a hospital, a shopping mall and high-rise apartment blocks, workers and bulldozers were busy on a recent visit tearing down furnaces as part of a 38 billion yuan ($5.5 billion) plan to move to a new industrial park 60 kilometers (37 miles) away.

ECONOMY NEWS

• The wrong Brexit deal could cost tens of thousands of jobs, the boss of Britain's biggest carmaker Jaguar Land Rover warned on Tuesday, saying he had no idea whether his plants would be able to operate after Britain leaves the European Union next year. Ralf Speth also said that the company would not be able to build cars if customs checks meant that the motorway to and from the southern English port of Dover, which is used to transport components, becomes a "car park" due to snarl-ups.
• It is an image that became a symbol of the global financial crisis -- about 20 bankers, their backs turned to the window, attending an emergency meeting at the London office of Lehman Brothers as the firm slid toward collapse. Gwion Moore, one of those pictured in the Reuters photograph taken on Sept. 11, 2008, recalled how the growing sense of panic in financial markets contrasted with the mood inside the building at the time. "
• A whistleblower fighting extradition to Switzerland for leaking details of thousands of clients of HSBC's (L:HSBA) private bank there said on Tuesday his actions had played a key role in helping other European countries uncover tax frauds. Spain's High Court is considering Switzerland's second extradition request against Herve Falciani, a French citizen who worked for HSBC, over alleged industrial sabotage in 2008.

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INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices rose on Wednesday morning in Asia, driven by the ongoing currency crisis in Argentina, which economists expect could lead to a recession, a weaker peso and higher inflation. Gold futures for December delivery went up 0.06% to $1,199.7 at 10:47PM ET (02:47 GMT) on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A monthly survey by Bloomberg on Tuesday showed that Argentina’s inflation is expected to hit 40.3% at the end of the year, higher than the 31.8% forecasted in July.
• Oil fell toward $77 a barrel on Wednesday as a tropical storm hitting the U.S. Gulf coast weakened and moved away from oil-producing areas, easing supply concerns. Crude had jumped the previous day as oil companies shut dozens of offshore platforms in anticipation of damage from tropical storm Gordon. But by Wednesday the storm was weakening, reducing its threat to oil producers.
• U.S. oil producer ConocoPhillips (N:COP) is still awaiting payment from Venezuela on a $2 billion arbitration settlement reached last month with the country's state-run PDVSA, Chief Executive Ryan Lance said on Wednesday. Conoco last month suspended legal attachments efforts that had cut Venezuela's oil exports from several Caribbean facilities following a deal that allowed the country 90 days to make an initial $500 million payment.

ECONOMY NEWS

• Argentina's peso lost nearly 1 percent against the U.S. dollar early on Wednesday as government officials met with the International Monetary Fund in Washington to try to secure early cash disbursements under an emergency financing deal. The peso opened down 0.89 percent at 39.4 to the dollar despite Economy Minister Nicolas Dujovne saying in Washington on Tuesday evening that he hoped to clinch a deal with the IMF within a month.
• Italy is unlikely to get one of its own appointed as the next head of Europe's banking watchdog, sources say, diminishing Rome's chances of retaining its influence over the European Central Bank once ECB chief Mario Draghi steps down next year. The ECB is looking to replace Daniele Nouy, a French national, as the head of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) -- the first of four top jobs at the central bank coming up for grabs in the next 15 months.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve should hold off on further interest rate rises because the stance of monetary policy is already at neutral or possibly restrictive, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Wednesday. Bullard has repeatedly raised the alarm over the central bank's plan to keep raising its benchmark lending rate and pointed to financial market signals as the best indicator of how policymakers should proceed.

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GOLD TRADING FORECAST TODAY

INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices gained on Friday as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as next week weighed on market sentiment. Gold futures for December delivery was at a trading price of $1,211.5 per troy ounce, up by 0.6%, at 1:10AM ET (05:10 GMT) on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal remained on track to record their longest monthly losing streak since 2013 despite today’s gains.
• Oil prices slipped on Friday as concerns over the impact of a global trade war depressed sentiment, although impending U.S. sanctions on Iran and falling Venezuelan output limited losses. Benchmark Brent crude oil (LCOc1) was down 40 cents at $77.37 a barrel by 1310 GMT. U.S. light crude (CLc1) was 30 cents lower at $69.95.
• OPEC oil output has risen this month to a 2018 high as Libyan production recovered and Iraq's southern exports hit a record, a Reuters survey found, although a cut in Iranian shipments due to U.S. sanctions limited the increase. The 15- member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 32.79 million barrels per day in August, the survey on Friday found, up 220,000 bpd from July's revised level and the highest this year.

ECONOMY NEWS

• The Russian central bank will need to postpone a plan to cut rates due to new U.S. sanctions against Moscow seen taking toll on inflation and the rouble, a monthly Reuters poll of 20 analysts and economists showed on Friday. Russia's economic outlook deteriorated after the rouble hit more than two-year lows against the dollar in August following Washington's move to apply fresh sanctions against Moscow and a warning that it could extend them in the future.
• The Brazilian economy accelerated slightly in the second quarter despite a nationwide truckers' strike, as a slow and uneven recovery rumbled on ahead of presidential elections in October. Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2 percent from the first quarter and 1.0 percent from a year before, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. That compares with economists' consensus forecasts of 0.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
• The European Commission confirmed on Friday that trade measures restricting the sale of solar panels from China would end at the start of next week. The Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, said in a statement that the measures would expire at midnight on Monday September 3. The European Union first imposed anti-dumping and anti -subsidy measures for Chinese solar panels, wafers and cells in 2013 and extended them in March 2017 by 18 months, signaling that they should then end.

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