Tuesday 30 August 2016

Dollar moves higher as investors watch for more Fed talk

The dollar was slightly higher against the yen and the euro during Asia trade on Tuesday, amid a lack of fresh trading cues to give clear direction to the greenback.
The U.S. dollar USDJPY, +0.30%  recently traded at ¥102.11, higher than ¥101.91 late Monday in New York. The euro EURUSD, -0.2145%  was changing hands at $1.1173 midday from $1.1189.
The WSJ Dollar Index BUXX, +0.23%  , a measure of the dollar against a basket of major currencies, was up 0.12% at 86.64.
The greenback hit an intraday high of ¥102.25 in mid-morning trade after digesting a mixture of flows related to Japanese corporate and institutional players’ commercial trade settlement at the end of the month. But the U.S. currency struggled to go upside, amid a lack of fresh incentives and moderate decline in Tokyo stocks.
The market is now shifting its focus to comments by the Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, as well as U.S. data namely the consumer confidence index for August due later today, to get more clarity about the Federal Reserve’s next move.
“The market is focusing on (Fischer’s) comments,” in an interview with Bloomberg TV later today, especially after his hawkish remarks last week, said Yuzo Sakai, manager of FX business promoting at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow.
The Federal Reserve’s second-in-command said in an interview Friday that it’s possible the U.S. central bank will raise rates next month. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen in her comments at the Jackson Hole symposium last week appeared to open the door to a rate increase in the coming weeks or months.


Despite their hawkish comments, a quick falloff in the odds for a rate increase by the Fed at its September policy meeting, according to the CME Group data, suggests that traders initially over-reacted to words said at that symposium.
“Investors are not pricing in a September rate increase,” said Sakai. “It’s obvious that the dollar will lose momentum if U.S. jobs data (due out Friday) disappoints. That’s the reason behind the dollar’s inability to go upside now.”
“The most important point is whether fresh incentives will come out to intensify speculation about the U.S. rate increase in September,” said Kumiko Ishikawa, senior analyst at Gaitame.Com Research Institute.
In other currency trade, the euro EURJPY, +0.11%  was at ¥114.11 from ¥113.97.




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