Thursday 8 September 2016

Home Economy & Politics Market Extra Get email alerts Pressure mounts on ECB to do QE3 — what to watch at today’s meeting


Will they or won’t they? Extend the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program, that is.

Investors are becoming increasingly convinced the ECB will prolong its asset-buying program beyond March 2017, but the big question is whether they will make the move as early as this week. The ECB kicked off its corporate bond buying program in June, complementing its purchases of government debt.

The gathering Thursday marks the second meeting for ECB policy makers since the U.K.’s June 23 Brexit vote. After a dovish message in July, economists are scrutinizing every possible hint in a bid to predict the next move. But with ECB President Mario Draghi remaining remarkably quiet in recent weeks, analysts are left to inspect economic data, which aren’t pointing to a clear path for policy.

“The decision to announce further policy accommodation at the September meeting or wait for further evidence is likely to be a close call. The recent survey and hard data, credit flow data and inflation paint a mixed picture of the eurozone economy,” analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note.

Second-quarter gross domestic product numbers out on Tuesday confirmed eurozone economic growth at 0.3%, in line with expectations, but still way below the historic average. The purchasing managers indexes showed private-sector activity in the bloc overall expanded in August, but with weakness starting to emerge in Germany and the periphery. A slowdown in Europe’s largest economy was also the takeaway from the country’s July factory orders that grew an underwhelming 0.2%.


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