KLSE Daily Report | KLSE Daily Signals

Bursa Malaysia's trading next week is forecast to slow down in the face of uncertainty in the emerging markets, escalating trade tensions and the extended weekend in the country, said dealers.Bank Islam chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said with investors remaining mindful of the external events, the FBMKLCI would linger around its resistance and support level of 1,805 and 1,776 respectively next week. “In addition, the US non-farm payroll data is expected to show that the labour market in the US remains solid, which necessitates a rate rise in the US, while the Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Sept 26.

“The Fed is expected to deliver a 25 basis points hike in the Fed Fund Rate which currently stands at two per cent. This will add further pressure to emerging countries' assets and currencies,” he told Bernama. In the first three days, the local market was on a downtrend and attempted to break the negative trend but failed to do so, although however it broke the trend on Thursday.

M and A Securities Sdn Bhd Chief Dealing Officer R Sundararajah said the market is still on the sidelines for the week just ended, taking into account the long weekend next week. “We can see a lot of investors are not taking a position, coupled with the composite index's performance, which started last Monday's trading at 1,819 and has dropped about 20 points since then.“We also saw the net sell by foreigners which stood at RM602 million,” he said, adding that he anticipated the index to remain below the 1,800 level.

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Commodity trading signals In Malaysia | Gold trading tips Forecast Today

GOLD TRADING FORECAST TODAY

INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices rose on Wednesday morning in Asia, driven by the ongoing currency crisis in Argentina, which economists expect could lead to a recession, a weaker peso and higher inflation. Gold futures for December delivery went up 0.06% to $1,199.7 at 10:47PM ET (02:47 GMT) on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A monthly survey by Bloomberg on Tuesday showed that Argentina’s inflation is expected to hit 40.3% at the end of the year, higher than the 31.8% forecasted in July.
• Oil fell toward $77 a barrel on Wednesday as a tropical storm hitting the U.S. Gulf coast weakened and moved away from oil-producing areas, easing supply concerns. Crude had jumped the previous day as oil companies shut dozens of offshore platforms in anticipation of damage from tropical storm Gordon. But by Wednesday the storm was weakening, reducing its threat to oil producers.
• U.S. oil producer ConocoPhillips (N:COP) is still awaiting payment from Venezuela on a $2 billion arbitration settlement reached last month with the country's state-run PDVSA, Chief Executive Ryan Lance said on Wednesday. Conoco last month suspended legal attachments efforts that had cut Venezuela's oil exports from several Caribbean facilities following a deal that allowed the country 90 days to make an initial $500 million payment.

ECONOMY NEWS

• Argentina's peso lost nearly 1 percent against the U.S. dollar early on Wednesday as government officials met with the International Monetary Fund in Washington to try to secure early cash disbursements under an emergency financing deal. The peso opened down 0.89 percent at 39.4 to the dollar despite Economy Minister Nicolas Dujovne saying in Washington on Tuesday evening that he hoped to clinch a deal with the IMF within a month.
• Italy is unlikely to get one of its own appointed as the next head of Europe's banking watchdog, sources say, diminishing Rome's chances of retaining its influence over the European Central Bank once ECB chief Mario Draghi steps down next year. The ECB is looking to replace Daniele Nouy, a French national, as the head of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) -- the first of four top jobs at the central bank coming up for grabs in the next 15 months.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve should hold off on further interest rate rises because the stance of monetary policy is already at neutral or possibly restrictive, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Wednesday. Bullard has repeatedly raised the alarm over the central bank's plan to keep raising its benchmark lending rate and pointed to financial market signals as the best indicator of how policymakers should proceed.

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Comex Trading Signals In Malaysia | Gold Trading Tips Forecast Today

GOLD TRADING FORECAST TODAY

INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices gained on Friday as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as next week weighed on market sentiment. Gold futures for December delivery was at a trading price of $1,211.5 per troy ounce, up by 0.6%, at 1:10AM ET (05:10 GMT) on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal remained on track to record their longest monthly losing streak since 2013 despite today’s gains.
• Oil prices slipped on Friday as concerns over the impact of a global trade war depressed sentiment, although impending U.S. sanctions on Iran and falling Venezuelan output limited losses. Benchmark Brent crude oil (LCOc1) was down 40 cents at $77.37 a barrel by 1310 GMT. U.S. light crude (CLc1) was 30 cents lower at $69.95.
• OPEC oil output has risen this month to a 2018 high as Libyan production recovered and Iraq's southern exports hit a record, a Reuters survey found, although a cut in Iranian shipments due to U.S. sanctions limited the increase. The 15- member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 32.79 million barrels per day in August, the survey on Friday found, up 220,000 bpd from July's revised level and the highest this year.

ECONOMY NEWS

• The Russian central bank will need to postpone a plan to cut rates due to new U.S. sanctions against Moscow seen taking toll on inflation and the rouble, a monthly Reuters poll of 20 analysts and economists showed on Friday. Russia's economic outlook deteriorated after the rouble hit more than two-year lows against the dollar in August following Washington's move to apply fresh sanctions against Moscow and a warning that it could extend them in the future.
• The Brazilian economy accelerated slightly in the second quarter despite a nationwide truckers' strike, as a slow and uneven recovery rumbled on ahead of presidential elections in October. Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2 percent from the first quarter and 1.0 percent from a year before, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. That compares with economists' consensus forecasts of 0.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
• The European Commission confirmed on Friday that trade measures restricting the sale of solar panels from China would end at the start of next week. The Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, said in a statement that the measures would expire at midnight on Monday September 3. The European Union first imposed anti-dumping and anti -subsidy measures for Chinese solar panels, wafers and cells in 2013 and extended them in March 2017 by 18 months, signaling that they should then end.

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Free Stocks Trading Seminar in Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur)

Epic Research Pte Ltd is organizing FREE Trading Seminar in Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur).

Topic: Measuring The KLSE Breadth - Investment Outlook

Date : 7th September 2018

Time: 5:30 PM to 7:30 PM (Followed by Dinner)

Venue: TKP Confrence Center, Kuala lumpur

Address: TKP Confrence Center, CP77, Suite 21.03-06, 21st Floor 33 50250, Central Plaza, 2506, Jalan Sultan Ismail, Bukit Bintang, 55100 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

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2018 started off on the bearish note given the changing dynamics of global financial markets. Trade War has been escalating while currency war is not anymore impending but a reality. The Face-off between the US and China has its own ripples effect on other Asian economies. There has been a lot of volatility that has hit the Asian markets because of Geopolitics and Geoeconomics. The indices have taken a hit while value erosion is seen in blue chips in the last few months.


There are timing models and tactical methods that can be deployed using a top-down approach and optimize the investment return. Relative comparisons and analysis help identifying the out-performers that will ride the next stock market investment opportunity.

We will discuss various aspects of Financial Market to help you out to make a better Investing / Trading decision and giving your investment an edge during these volatile times.


1. What major events and markets risks will affect the Index in Q3 2018?

2. What strategies can be used to optimize the return on investment?

3. Passive and Active Trading Strategies, Which one you should follow?

4. Dynamic and Tactical Asset Allocation for Q3

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Hong Kong notches biggest drop since February as Asian stocks plunge

Asian shares started the week notably weaker as fears of a possible U.S. interest-rate increase gripped markets, with investors assessing the potential impact on growth.

“We are taking the selloff in the U.S. [on Friday] very, very seriously,” said Amir Anvarzadeh, global head of equity sales for Japan at BGC Partners. He said the equities weakness on both sides of the Pacific indicates a reversal in trend. “Whatever growth we are getting [globally] could slow down” if interest rates rise, Anvarzadeh added.

Emerging markets in Asia are particularly vulnerable to a rate increase in the U.S. as better returns there could prompt a flight of capital from less-developed areas. But some say strong growth and the potential for earnings to pick up faster in Asia will temper any sharp withdrawals.

After U.S. stocks on Friday posted the biggest declines since the initial post-Brexit drops, following a summer devoid of volatility in equities trading there, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -2.24% declined 2.2% Monday and Taiwan’s Taiex Y9999, -1.18% dropped 1.2% — both finishing at their lowest levels in two months.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -3.36% skidded 3.3% to 23,310.33, the biggest drop since February.

The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -1.85% shed 1.9%, finishing at a 1-month low, and the Nikkei Stock Average NIK, -1.73% ended down 1.7%.

Korea’s Kospi SEU, -2.28% , which notched its largest decline in two months Friday, topped that with a 2.3% decline. Samsung Electronics Co. 005930, -6.98% SSNHZ, +0.00% ,which makes up one-sixth of the index, notched its biggest decline in four years, with a 7% slide on more worries about the Galaxy Note 7.

Easy monetary policies have propped up asset prices globally since the financial crisis nearly a decade ago. “Record capital outflows from Japan in recent months, if not years, oiled the wheels of global finance,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC.

Alex Furber, a senior client services executive at CMC Markets in Singapore, added: “U.S. stocks were overvalued, and a correction there was due for some time.”



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HP Inc buying Samsung’s printer business for $1.05 Billion

HP Inc. sees its future in copiers and printers.

The personal-computer maker has agreed to buy Samsung Electronics Co.’s printer business for $1.05 billion, betting that it can grab share and generate income, even in a shrinking global market.

The deal will add to earnings in the first full year, Palo Alto, California-based HP said in a statement Monday. As part of the agreement, Samsung has committed to buy $100 million to $300 million worth of HP shares on the open market after the acquisition closes, the companies said.

The merger opens up a path for HP to focus more on the copier market and get its hands on key laser-printing technology. It’s also part of a bigger plan by the company to expand its portfolio beyond its well-known line of printers and find new sources of growth as smartphones, tablets and other digital devices reduce the need for traditional paper printing.

The acquisition is the biggest since HP split from Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. last year to focus on personal computers and related hardware.

“This is a major strategic move for HP,” Enrique Lores, president of Imaging, Printing & Solutions at HP, said on a conference call. “The separation is really working.”

Still, revenue in HP’s printing division fell 14% to $4.42 billion in the latest quarter, while total sales fell about 4% to $11.9 billion.

When the company reported earnings last month, it said restructuring activities were on track for the fiscal year, including about 3,000 job cuts. HP has a small presence in the office copier market, which is dominated by the likes of Xerox Corp.

For Suwon, South Korea-based Samsung, the divestment is part of a longer-term push to focus on more high-growth areas.

“The sale of printers makes perfect sense because the world of paper is going away,” said Mark Newman, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in Hong Kong.

“Printers don’t have much future. It’s all going to be screens and Samsung is the biggest display maker in the world.”

The printer deal is expected to close in about 12 months and is subject to approvals, the companies said.

HP will receive more than 6,500 patents from Samsung, Lores said, adding to its intellectual-property lineup. Samsung’s laser capabilities are more suited for the large copiers that are built for heavy use at company offices. HP relies on Canon Inc. for key laser technology in some of its printers.

Deal activity in the printing sector is picking up. Earlier this year, Lexmark International Inc. agreed to be acquired by an investment consortium led by Apex Technology Co. and PAG Asia Capital in a transaction that values the company at $3.6 billion.



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Stocks, bonds suffer central bank anxiety attack

Asian shares suffered their sharpest setback since June on Monday as investors were rattled by rising bond yields and talk the Federal Reserve might be serious about lifting U.S. interest rates as early as next week.

European bourses were also tipped to open with losses stretching from 1.4% for the FTSE to 2.2% for the DAX.

Reports that the Bank of Japan was considering ways to steepen the Japanese yield curve, along with worries that central banks more generally were running short of fresh stimulus options, hit sovereign debt and risk appetite globally.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan  fell 2.4%, pulling away from a 13-month peak. It was the largest daily drop since the frenzy caused by Britain’s vote in late June to leave the European Union.

On a technical basis the index had been overbought in recent sessions, leaving it vulnerable to a pullback. Hong Kong, Shanghai and Australian stocks followed with falls of more than 2 percent.

The Nikkei 225 lost 2% as the safe haven yen firmed and selling in bonds drove yields on 20-year JGBs to the highest since March.

Traders were unsure how the BOJ would try to steepen the yield curve if it goes down that path at a policy review later this month, but markets are worried that tapering of its buying in long-dated bonds could be among the options.

EMini futures for the S&P 500, traded in Chicago during Asian hours, swung 0.6% lower, though Treasuries were finding safe-haven demand.

Some Fed members have been trying to convince markets that the September meeting would be “live” for a hike, even though futures (0-FF:) only imply a one-in-four chance of a move.
No less than three Fed officials are expected to speak later in the day, including board member and noted dove Lael Brainard.

Any hint of hawkishness would likely further pressure bonds and equities.

“Market participants are wondering if maybe she (Brainard) is being wheeled out to give the market one last warning of a rate hike at next week’s meeting,” said Marshall Gittler, head of research at broker FXPRIMUS.

“The thinking is that if someone as dovish as she is starts talking like a hawk, people will notice. Her speech will be closely examined.” Such risks led Wall Street’s fear gauge, the VIX index , to its highest close since late June on Friday. The Dow  shed 2.13% on Friday, while the S&P 500 lost 2.45% and the Nasdaq 2.54% .

Super-low yields have made returns on equities seem relatively more attractive in comparison, so any sustained climb in yields would likely weigh on stock valuations.

The yield on benchmark German debt, for instance, had turned positive for the first time since July 22 and ended at 0.02%, its highest since June 23. Yields on U.S. 10-year and 30-year paper hit 11-week peaks.

In the forex market, the sudden bout of risk aversion benefited perceived havens such as the yen while hitting carry trades in higher yielding currencies including the Australian dollar.

The Aussie has lost 1.5% against the yen in two sessions to stand at 77.21, while the Japanese currency was firm on the U.S. dollar at 102.55.

The euro was sidelined on the dollar at $1.1242 after weak German trade data dragged it down from $1.1271 on Friday.

The dollar index, which tracks it against a basket of six currencies, eased fractionally to 95.265.

Adding to the jittery mood on Monday was news that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton fell ill at a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony and had been diagnosed with pneumonia.

Markets have generally assumed Clinton would win the presidency and have not truly considered the implications, both economic and for national security, should Donald Trump prevail.

Geopolitical concerns had already been inflamed by North Korea’s fifth and biggest nuclear test, ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.

North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test, South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday, citing South Korean government sources.

In commodities, oil prices extended Friday’s 4 percent fall in Asia after reports showed increasing oil drilling activity in the United States, indicating that producers can operate profitably around current levels and bring on new supply.

Brent crude was off 68 cents, or about 1.4%, at $47.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 75 cents to $45.13.


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European shares slide, poised for biggest loss since June

Shares in the United States and Asian sunk as bond yields rose around the world. Investors fretted over a potential rate rise by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week, as they also questioned whether central bank policy had reached the limits of its effectiveness.

The STOXX 600 was down 1.8%, set for its biggest fall since late June. The growth-sensitive basic resources sector slumped 3.5%, the worst performer on the day, while bank stocks fell 1.9% .

German-listed E.ON was the top faller, down 13% after it spun off its Uniper division, while Linde dropped 7.4% after its Praxair merger fell apart. 



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Asian shares look set to skid on Monday

Asian shares looked set to skid on Monday with investors rattled by rising bond yields and talk the Federal Reserve might be serious about lifting U.S. interest rates as early as next week.

Nikkei futures pointed toward a starting loss of at least 2 percent, while EMini futures for the S&P 500 were off 0.2 percent after the index suffered its sharpest daily loss since the Brexit vote on Friday.

Reports the Bank of Japan was considering ways to steepen the Japanese yield curve, along with speculation that central banks more generally were running short on fresh stimulus measures, slugged sovereign debt and risk appetite globally.

Some Fed members have been trying to convince markets that the September meeting would be "live" for a hike, even though futures  only imply a one-in-four chance of a move.

No less than three Fed speakers are on the docket for Monday including board member and noted dove Lael Brainard. Any hint of hawkishness would likely further pressure bonds and equities.

"The debate on low nominal inflation and low neutral rates versus robust labor markets and elevated asset values continues to rage on in the U.S.," wrote analysts at ANZ.

"Given the split in views expressed so far, it seems the centralists will have the final say for September. Given what has been said so far it seems like it could go either way so brace for a little more volatility."

The CBOE Volatility index closed at its highest level since late June on Friday. The Dow shed 2.13 percent on Friday, while the S&P 500 lost 2.45 percent and the Nasdaq 2.54 percent.

Super-low yields have made returns on equities seem relatively more attractive in comparison, so any sustained climb in yields would likely weigh on stock valuations.

The yield on benchmark German debt, for instance, had turned positive for the first time since July 22 and ended at 0.02 percent, its highest since June 23. Yields on U.S. 10-year and 30-year paper hit 11-week peaks.

SEEKING SAFETY

In the forex market, the sudden bout of risk aversion benefited safe havens such as the yen while hitting carry trades in higher yielding currencies including the Australian dollar.

The Aussie has lost 1.5 percent against the yen in two sessions to stand at 77.10, while the Japanese currency was firm on the U.S. dollar at 101.31.

The euro was sidelined on the dollar at $1.1233 after weak German trade data dragged it down from $1.1271 on Friday. The dollar index, which tracks it against a basket of six currencies, eased 0.1 percent to 95.279.

Adding to the jittery mood on Monday was news Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton fell ill at a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony and had been diagnosed with pneumonia.

Markets have generally assumed Clinton would win the presidency and have not truly considered the implications, both economic and for national security, should Donald Trump win.

Geopolitical concerns had already been inflamed by North Korea's fifth and biggest nuclear test, ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.

North Korea has completed preparations for another nuclear test, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday, citing South Korean government sources.

In commodities, oil prices extended Friday's 4 percent falling early trade. Brent crude was off 45 cents at $47.56 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 56 cents to $45.32.


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Malaysia's Axiata’s not in talks with Singapore's M1 to raise stake

Axiata Group Bhd is not in any negotiation to raise the regional telecommunication firm’s stake in Singapore’s M1 Ltd.

This was confirmed to StarBiz by Axiata president and group chief executive officer Tan Sri Jamaludin Ibrahim (pic). Axiata has a 28.57% stake in M1 which provides both fixed and mobile telecommunication services in the island republic.

“I wish to be clear that Axiata is not currently in any negotiations with M1 to increase our stake further from the existing 28.57% held.

“However, being one of the leading regional operators and a long-term investor in Asean and South Asia, we are always looking to consider any worthwhile opportunities in the region.



“This is subject to the right timing and pricing, among other important criteria and whether they meet our strategic merger and acquisition (M&A) objectives,” Jamaludin said.

Earlier reports had indicated that Axiata was keen on increasing its stake in M1 as part of expansion plans in the region.

According to AmInvestment Bank, the M1 development followed as Keppel Corp was considering selling its 19.2% equity stake in M1 as part of a strategy to dispose of non-core operations.

Axiata has held a stake since 2005, with M1 having delivered consistently good returns.

Apart from Singapore, Axiata has controlling stakes in local telecommunication firms in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Cambodia.

Meanwhile, Jamaludin reiterated the company’s plans in expanding its telecommunication tower infrastructure business through edotco Group Sdn Bhd via M&As.

“We are keen to consider inorganic expansions outside our existing footprint.

“The target market of Asean and South Asia region remains, which is in line with our continuous effort to further drive long-term growth in these areas,” he said.

edotco, the world’s 12th largest independent tower company, manages 16,800 towers with a portfolio spanning across Malaysia, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Myanmar.

As for its mobile business, Axiata’s focus has been on in-country mobile consolidation by taking controlling stakes in network operators across Asean and South Asia.

In-country consolidations allow Axiata to solidify its position, unlock market profitability and synergy opportunities as well as ensure sustainable long-term growth.

The company began strengthening existing operations and market position through consolidation exercises in 2013, in Sri Lanka between Dialog and Suntel, followed by Sky Television and Radio, and later in Cambodia with Smart and Hello. In 2014, XL and Axis in Indonesia were also consolidated.

Axiata has also since ventured into the highly competitive Bangladesh market with Robi and Airtel.

The company had received approval for the proposed merger of Robi Axiata Ltd and Airtel Bangladesh Ltd from the Bangladesh High Court on Aug 31.

“The proposed merger is expected to be completed by fourth quarter of 2016.

“Both parties are currently working towards this,” said Jamaludin.

The completion of the proposed merger will be subject to the fulfilment of specific conditions mandated by the High Court and completion of conditions precedent in the merger agreement.

Some of the conditions entail payments of a proposed merger fee amounting to BDT100 crore (US$12.8mil), as well as the difference between spectrum price of BDT507 crore (US$65mil).

Besides that, in the event that Robi returns any spectrum, the value of the returned spectrum has been fixed at Taka 10 crore (US$1.3mil) per MHz per year.

The combined entity post-merger will operate as Robi, serving approximately 40 million customers from the current estimated 27 million.

“The proposed merger combines the strength of both operations and will deliver the widest mobile network coverage across Bangladesh, strengthening its position in the mobile internet segment as well as consolidating its position as the second largest operator in the country,” said Jamaludin.

Axiata completed the acquisition of Nepal’s Ncell Pte Ltd in April this year, marking the company’s entry into Nepal.

Ncell was acquired for US$1.37bil (RM5.6bil) from Swedish telco giant TeliaSonera (now known as Telia Company).

However, Ncell had been directed by the Large Tax Payers Office of Nepal to calculate and make a 15% deposit of the gains of TeliaSonera from the share sale of offshore company Reynolds Holdings Ltd by Telia Norway, a subsidiary of Telia Company of Sweden.

The advance tax of 9.96 billion Nepalese rupees (RM378.75mil) deposited by Ncell was in relation to the capital gains tax which was supposed to be paid to the seller Telia Norway.

Jamaludin said Axiata and Telia Company were in the midst of discussing the matter with Nepal for an amicable solution for all parties involved.

For the second quarter of financial year 2016, Ncell’s contribution to Axiata’s revenue, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation and normalised profit after tax and minority interests were 9.1%, 15% and 32.1% respectively.

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