Monday, 6 July 2015

The real reason gold has been falling

There is too much bullishness among gold market timers, and that’s why the yellow metal has failed to respond to the macroeconomic factors that otherwise should have caused it to rally.

Imagine being told a month ago how the Greek debt crisis would unfold over the next few weeks. If you knew then that the country would default on its debt, you probably would have forecast that gold would rally. That’s because bullion is a safe haven in times of geopolitical and economic crisis, and Greece’s default threatens the economic stability of the entire eurozone.

Another reason you’d have been bullish is that gold is an inflation hedge, and it would have been a good bet that, if Greece did default, the European Central Bank would flood the eurozone with monetary stimulus in an effort to keep the Greek crisis from spreading.

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