Wednesday 15 June 2016

At US$50 a barrel, oil risks "reverse Goldilocks" syndrome

Oil's battle to reclaim US$50 a barrel may have left it in a sticky situation, where the price is too low to lure fresh investor bulls and too high to force more production offline.

Global oil production has fallen by nearly 1 million barrels per day in the last year to just over 95 million bpd, based on International Energy Agency figures. Demand is expected to reach 96.7 million bpd this quarter, up more than 1 million bpd in that time.

An abrupt rise in unplanned production outages, caused by wildfires in Canada, as well as political and economic havoc in Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya fuelled a 75% rally in the last six months, surpassing US$50 for the first time since the height of the US subprime crisis in early 2009.

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