For the past three weeks, the S&P 500 has shifted from a short-term uptrend to a sideways movement. Key market indicators currently register not even one bullish signal. If this continues, the market will not only top out, but could roll over.
Take a look at the technical and sentiment indicators from Friday’s close:
Technical indicators
S&P 500 SPX, +0.30% is above its moving averages but moving sideways = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 is near support @ 2,170 = Neutral (2,150 next support level)
Sentiment indicators
II survey: (Aug. 30) 55.9% Bulls; 20.6% Bears = Bearish
AAII survey: (Aug. 31): 28.6% Bulls; 31.5% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 11.98 = Bearish
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 55.25 = Neutral
On the sentiment side, while many investors are leery of this market, most pros are all-in and bullish. In fact, bullish sentiment and complacency are at extremes. On the technical side, MACD is giving out a long-term sell signal as the market stalls out at these elevated levels. It was a red flag when the S&P hit its all time-high of 2,193 but failed to break through to the other side. Once again, it retreated.
On the other hand, if the S&P 500 can’t break below 2,170 or 2,165, it will likely remain in no-man’s land. Nevertheless, most bearish investors are too timid to bet against this market, and who can blame them? According to Lance Roberts at Real Investment Advice, inverse ETF volume is at its second-lowest level in five years. This tells me that bearish investors who don’t trust this market are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
Another red flag is that margin debt is once again reaching extreme levels (although less extreme than in January). “Most importantly,” Roberts writes, “the amount of leverage investors are taking on is further confirmation of “greed” and “lack of fear.” He says that when greed turns to fear, that’s when margin debt really matters.
Click here for Free Signals OR Give A Missed Call : +60350219047 Follow Us On Twitter : www.twitter.com/epicresearchmy Like Us On Facebook : www.facebook.com/EpicResearchMalaysia Need Any Assistance Feel Free To Mail Us at : info@epicresearch.my
Take a look at the technical and sentiment indicators from Friday’s close:
Technical indicators
S&P 500 SPX, +0.30% is above its moving averages but moving sideways = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is above the zero line but pointing down = Neutral
MACD (S&P 500; 19,39,9) is below its signal line = Bearish
S&P 500 is near support @ 2,170 = Neutral (2,150 next support level)
Sentiment indicators
II survey: (Aug. 30) 55.9% Bulls; 20.6% Bears = Bearish
AAII survey: (Aug. 31): 28.6% Bulls; 31.5% Bears = Neutral
VIX: @ 11.98 = Bearish
RSI: (S&P 500) @ 55.25 = Neutral
On the sentiment side, while many investors are leery of this market, most pros are all-in and bullish. In fact, bullish sentiment and complacency are at extremes. On the technical side, MACD is giving out a long-term sell signal as the market stalls out at these elevated levels. It was a red flag when the S&P hit its all time-high of 2,193 but failed to break through to the other side. Once again, it retreated.
On the other hand, if the S&P 500 can’t break below 2,170 or 2,165, it will likely remain in no-man’s land. Nevertheless, most bearish investors are too timid to bet against this market, and who can blame them? According to Lance Roberts at Real Investment Advice, inverse ETF volume is at its second-lowest level in five years. This tells me that bearish investors who don’t trust this market are not willing to put their money where their mouths are.
Another red flag is that margin debt is once again reaching extreme levels (although less extreme than in January). “Most importantly,” Roberts writes, “the amount of leverage investors are taking on is further confirmation of “greed” and “lack of fear.” He says that when greed turns to fear, that’s when margin debt really matters.
Click here for Free Signals OR Give A Missed Call : +60350219047 Follow Us On Twitter : www.twitter.com/epicresearchmy Like Us On Facebook : www.facebook.com/EpicResearchMalaysia Need Any Assistance Feel Free To Mail Us at : info@epicresearch.my
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